I Love a Panic! Or, the Mariners and the Month of April

There’s a common refrain you hear among baseball fans and pundits in April.

It’s early.

A baseball season takes the shape of 182 games over six months. It’s a long season and you gotta trust it. Bad starts, good starts, incredible offense, poor pitching. It’s all early and you gotta trust it.

Logically, I agree with this. It’s silly and irrational to lose your mind over a handful of games, or even a month’s worth of games. I know this, you know this, your dog may or may not know this. Still, it’s been difficult watching the Mariners in the early going and not panicking, at least a little bit.

I will argue, it’s also at least a little bit of fun. Baseball fandom is for the baseball, sure, but it’s also about connection with your fellow humans; it brings us together. And sometimes what brings us together is the Mariners sucking. So why not lean into it, have a little fun, and lose our minds together?

After yesterday’s win in Toronto, your Seattle Mariners are sporting a record of 5-8. The offense has sucked. The pitching has struggled. The bullpen has been okayish, so we’ll let them off the hook. The defense? I don’t want to talk about it. It’s been tough not to go all Pete Campbell on any innocent soul who dares to ask how the Mariners are doing this year.

They lead the American League in strikeouts with 138 after jettisoning players because, as John Stanton condescendingly told us, they were trying to lower the overall strikeout numbers. Never mind that those players are not struggling to start the season, the trading rather than pursing free agents felt like another example of the Mariners ownership’s unwillingness to spend money, to show that they actually care about winning. As a fan it’s really disheartening to look around at all the talent this team has, and know they could be a good team—not just a fringe playoff contender—with a little more help.

Again, the first two weeks of a season don’t determine the success of the previous offseason. But given the Mariners’ approach, it doesn’t matter what the actual record is. They could have made the team better and they chose to make lateral moves instead. A good season and a playoff appearance would be the result of luck more than design.

And a sucky beginning hits hard.

To assuage our bitter souls, we’ve been telling ourselves that the Mariners always struggle in April, that they will get better later in the year. This certainly feels true, but is it?

Before we get into the numbers, a few things of note. First, I couldn’t pull all the stats I wanted in Baseball-Reference/Stathead’s query. I don’t have wRC+ or FIP, both of which I like to use. Those numbers are findable, of course, but I felt like I could tell the story well enough without the amount of work that would take. Second, looking at big picture things ignores the differences in how good teams were year to year. When I look at splits between the Mariners’ two home ballparks, is that a fair comparison of the various talent levels? I don’t know. Third, with the different ballparks I wanted to just compare home games, but I wasn’t able to split it out that much. Relatedly, the 1999 season is under the Kingdome category, but the second half of that season was played at Safeco Field so the numbers aren’t perfect for that year. All of this data is from Stathead, with the exception of the 2024 numbers, which are from the MLB website and are up-to-date following Wednesday’s game.

Let’s jump in.

Historically, it’s safe to say that April has been the worst month for the Mariners offensively. Looking at the entire scope of March/April games, the Mariners have the lowest batting average, second lowest slugging percentage, second lowest OPS, and the lowest BABIP:

You may wonder if there has been a difference between the Kingdome and Safeco Field/T-Mobile Park and indeed there has been a predicable difference. Hitting outside in March/April is worse than hitting inside:

It’s certainly felt worse recently, and we see that’s true when we look at the monthly splits from the last five full seasons, plus the covid year. But, in a plot twist, we see that numbers are down in EVERY month the past 5 years, and March/April has company:

Well. If the Mariners aren’t hitting, let’s say due to ballpark factors, that probably gives the pitching an advantage, right? I used ERA to rank the months because it gives an overall, albeit imperfect, broad view of the effectiveness of the pitching. And based on ERA, Mariners pitching is at its best in April:

You won’t be surprised to hear that April pitching was the worst of any month during the Kingdome era and the second best in the Safeco Field/T-Mobile Park era. All time, that averages out to put April in the middle of the pack.

These numbers are fun, but how does that translate to results? All time, March/April is the second winningest month, despite being the second losingest month in the Kingdome era. In the Safeco/T-Mob era, March/April is also the second winningest month. (The winningest/losingest month is based on win percentage due to differences in the number of games played.)

The last 5 years? Surprisingly, the trend holds! I was as shocked as you are. If you don’t believe me, here are the numbers:

Is April the cruelest month? I say no. Offensively, it is offensive. But overall, the strength of the pitching in a pitcher’s ballpark raises the tide.

But wait, I can hear you saying. We’ve only barely begun April. What about the first 13 games of the season? How do they all compare?

I regret to inform you, offensively, the first 13 games of 2024 were the baddest of the bad, pulling a team batting average just north of the Mendoza Line (named, as you likely know, after the erstwhile Mariner, Mario Mendoza):

The pitching has felt unusually shaky this year. Overall, it has been able to pull the offense up, but this year…. On the other hand, when you start looking at the bottom of the rankings, it could be a lot worse:

How does this 5-8 start compare to other season starts? Brace yourselves, my friends. For they are tied for the third worst 13-game start to a season in Mariners history (or tied for the 7th worst start, if you want to do your counting that way). The 1998 Mariners hold a record in the first 13 games of a season that we can only hope will never be broken (I briefly considered writing about that start, but honestly, I remember it too well and I can’t afford the therapy required to relive it).

Make no mistake, the start to the 2024 season has been bad, among the worst in their history! So, gather together and commiserate and bond over the misery of Mariner fandom. As for me, I’ll leave you with this.

Ron Fairly was a color commentator on Mariners broadcasts for 13 years. And at the beginning of most of those seasons, he would patiently assure us, “Edgar’s bat will heat up with the weather.” He said this over and over again ad nauseum. He said it so many times, it automatically runs through my head when it comes to Edgar Martinez.

Like most things Ron said over and over again, he was right. Edgar’s bat did heat up with the weather. Nearly across the board, Edgar’s offensive numbers were the lowest at the beginning of the season. In all the Marches and Aprils of his career, he slashed .297/.407/.479 with 179 walks, compared to his total lifetime numbers of .312/.418/.515 with 1,283 walks. (I think a lot of baseball players would happily take his career March/April numbers! That’s why he’s a Hall of Famer.)

The bats will heat up with the weather. It was true for Edgar, it will be true for this team. It’s only been 13 games. It’s early. It’s early.

It’s early.

If anyone is interested in seeing my full spreadsheet with all my little charts, it’s available here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gLjefrsXlcbdQksDjCnRPYt3JOmUAI5X/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=108661035690952490706&rtpof=true&sd=true